Month: March 2020

CITIC Securities (600030) 2019 Semi-annual Results Express Commentary: Decline in self-employed earnings or the main suppressive factor

CITIC Securities (600030) 2019 Semi-annual Results Express Commentary: Decline in self-employed earnings or the main suppressive factor

CITIC Securities (600030) 2019 Semi-annual Results Express Commentary: Decline in self-employed earnings or the main suppressive factor

Event: CITIC Securities disclosed the 2019 semi-annual results report. The company’s operating income and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company increased by 9 respectively.

33%, 15.


Decline in self-employment income or the main suppressive factor.

Ranked in the first quarter reported to the mother net profit of 58.

The previous growth rate of 29%, the company’s reported net profit growth rate actually narrowed, slightly lower than expected.

We believe that the reason is that at least the second quarter of last year was the quarter in which the company’s net profit performance was the best, with a certain high base impact; benefiting from the market recovery in the first quarter of the year, the company’s investment income increased by 106%, and the second quarter entered the adjustment period, Self-employment income is expected to decline significantly.

In terms of brokerage business, the growth rate of market turnover in Q2 exceeded Q1, and revenue is expected to remain stable.

The average daily turnover in 2019H1 was 5,824 trillion, an increase of 33% a year, while the average daily turnover in 2019Q1 was 5,753 trillion, a year-on-year growth rate of 21%.

The company’s brokerage business revenue contracted slightly in the first quarter due to the company’s business structure.

CITIC Securities has a relatively high percentage of institutional customers, and the release of retail trading activity is not strongly conducive to the increase in the company’s brokerage business income. The company’s brokerage business performance is expected to be stable in the first half of the year.

The investment banking business is expected to grow rapidly. Only refinancing has contracted, and the IPO market share has increased significantly.

This year’s IPO projects showed a significant concentration of leaders. In CITIC Securities, there were 10 IPOs in 2019H1 (7 in the same period last year) and 11 additional (20 in the same period last year).

The total size of the initial offering is 15.1 billion (ten years + 90%), with a market share of 25%, a significant increase from the 9% market share in the same period last year; the additional issue amount is 37.2 billion (-14% to date).

In terms of debt underwriting, the total underwriting volume of CITIC Securities’ corporate bonds + corporate bonds in the first half of the year was $ 76.8 billion, + 33% per year.

Asset management business is still in the transitional stage.

According to the latest asset management scale ranking, CITIC Securities averaged 1 in 2019Q1.

29 trillion yuan, an average month-on-year decrease of 16%, and the scale of active management dropped by 15%. The proportion of active management increased from 39% last year to 40%. CITIC Securities still ranked first in the industry in terms of scale.

However, the road to transition is long and stubborn. Although the scale of asset management of securities brokers has slowed down, it has not seen stabilization.

Investment suggestion: The overall accrual rate of CITIC Securities’ annual credit business impairment losses is high, the quality of existing projects is guaranteed, and this risk is expected to be controllable.

Affected by market adjustments, the company’s second-quarter performance was slightly higher than expected, and we initially adjusted the EPS forecast for 2019/2020/2021 to 1.



50 yuan (the original forecast was 1.



94 yuan), BPS is 13.



44 yuan, the corresponding PB is 1.



51 times, ROE is 8 respectively.




Based on the further interpretation of the industry’s leading concentration, the company leads the industry in many aspects such as capital adequacy ratio and business scale, plus if it successfully sells its CITIC Construction 北京夜网 Investment 5 during the year.

58% will increase the company ‘s net profit by an additional 40-55 million, and we give 2-2 in 2019 results.5x PB estimate, target price range of 27-33 yuan, maintaining the “recommended” level.

Risk warning: the development of innovative business is blocked, financial supervision is tightened, and other systemic risks.

Marubeni (603983): More response to the impact of the epidemic, e-commerce business and new marketing prospects are worth looking forward to

Marubeni (603983): More response to the impact of the epidemic, e-commerce business and new marketing prospects are worth looking forward to

Marubeni (603983): More response to the impact of the epidemic, e-commerce business and new marketing prospects are worth looking forward to

The company’s recent situation We recently organized a conference call with Marubei Co., Ltd. and exchanged with investors during the conversion; we also tracked the company’s online sales through third-party crawler data, the main points are as follows: Comment 1, we expect the epidemic situationLimited impact on the company as a whole.

1) From the perspective of terminal sales, the epidemic will have a certain impact on offline channels, but the online impact is relatively relative: Marume’s category structure is mainly skin care products, which has alternative consumer stickiness. At the same time, by channel, offline storesDue to the impact of some store closures and reduced passenger flow, or a certain impact; the degree of interference from online channels is small, the company is actively conducting social operations such as WeChat group to reduce the impact on offline; 2) Q1 is the off-season of beauty sales,After the epidemic, demand is expected to recover. Marumi’s sales are mainly based on the distribution model and a strict first payment and after delivery model. Distributors often pre-order advanced products before the Spring Festival. Q1 is concentrated in 3 months.It accounts for about 20% of the expected, and the short-term impact of the epidemic on the company is limited.

At this stage, Marubeni is actively helping dealers to carry out promotions, online operation training, and digest inventory. In the future, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the recovery of the company’s terminal sales.

  2. Focus on online e-commerce and new media operations in 2020, and performance is expected to grow rapidly.

  Since listing, the company has reorganized its brand positioning and channel focus, and its development strategy has been further clarified.

Looking forward to 2020, 1) On the channel: The company will focus on e-commerce channels and continue to optimize the operating model and talent team. We expect that the generation operator will try to complete the conversion before this time. At the same time, the department store and beauty salon channels are expected to maintain rapid growth.2) In terms of marketing: the construction of new marketing models has been further 四川耍耍网 strengthened, and the company’s social media department is being actively established. We believe that it is expected to comprehensively enhance the company’s new marketing capabilities such as KOL marketing and social media operations, reaching young consumer groups in many dimensions.

  3. In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the prospect of the company becoming a comprehensive domestic beauty beauty leader.

As a leading mid-to-high-end domestic beauty beauty leader, Marubeni is a high-quality segmented track for eye care, anti-aging, and other breakthroughs in research and development capabilities and internal operation control capabilities.

In 2020, through brand positioning, channel focus, and further streamlining of marketing practices, we expect the company’s performance to help maintain rapid growth.

In the follow-up, we do not rule out the company’s timely launch of equity incentives to further unite the interests of all parties to help sustainable growth.

  Estimates suggest that we keep our earnings forecasts unchanged.

It currently corresponds to 45 times P / E in 2020, maintains an outperform industry rating and a target price of 85 yuan, corresponding to 57 times P / E in 2020, which is 26% more growth than currently.

  The impact of the risk epidemic lasted longer than expected.

CITIC Construction Investment (601066) Depth: ROE’s Leading Investment Behavior Prospects for Nuclear Energy Agency Business Development

CITIC Construction Investment (601066) Depth: ROE’s Leading Investment Behavior Prospects for Nuclear Energy Agency Business Development

CITIC Construction Investment (601066) Depth: ROE’s Leading Investment Behavior Prospects for Nuclear Energy Agency Business Development

CITIC Construction Investment is the eleventh AH-listed securities firm with two state-owned assets, with no actual controller.

Founded in 2005, CITIC Construction Investment was listed on the H-share market in December 2016 and A-share market in June 18, becoming the 11th domestic AH brokerage firm.

The first two shareholders are Beijing State Administration Center (35.

11%), Central Huijin (31.

21%), after CITIC Securities reduced its shareholding, CITIC will become the company’s third largest shareholder (4.


Obtained AA rating from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for 10 consecutive years.

ROE is a leader in the industry, driven by both the asset-light main business structure and high operating leverage.

From 2013 to 2018, the average ROE of the company was 17.

5%, ranking first among 41 listed brokers.

From 2016 to 2018, the company’s ROE was 14 respectively.

8%, 9.

5%, 6.

8%, 6 higher than the industry respectively.

8 points, 3.

0pct, 3.


ROE is higher than the industry. It is driven by asset-light revenue structure and high operating leverage. 1) In 2016-2018, the company ‘s investment banking business accounted for 31%, 30%, and 29%, respectively.The highest proportion; 2) From 2016 to 2018, the company’s operating leverage was 3 respectively.

0 times, 3.

8 times, 3.

4 times, 0 higher than the industry respectively.

4 times, 1.

0 times, 0.

5 times.

The investment banking business is the company’s core advantage. It accumulates high-quality institutional customers to drive the development of the entire business line, and its IPO reserves are leading.

In 2018, the company’s investment bank income ranked first in the industry. In terms of sub-items, stock underwriting, bond underwriting, and financial advisory income ranked second, first, and second respectively in the industry.

From 2016 to 2018, the company’s main underwriting amount of the company remained in the top 3 in the industry,北京夜网 the bond underwriting amount remained in the top 2 in the industry, and the amount of M & A and restructuring transactions remained stable in the top 4 in the industry.

As of the end of June 2019, the company had 212 sponsors, ranking first among all securities firms.

In 2018-2019H1, the company’s IPO and merger and acquisition reorganization review passed the reorganization of 82%, leading the major securities firms.

The company is an outstanding leader in a number of subdivisions such as TMT, aerospace and military, and as the sponsor of 16 technology innovation companies as of July 29, ranking second in the industry.

Looking forward to the future, core competitive businesses enjoy the country’s direct financial development bonus, and a large number of high-quality institutional customers drive the development of other business lines of the company.

The balance of other business strengths and the active development of OTC financial derivatives business.

1) Brokerage and Liangrong business revenue market share is tenth in the industry. At present, we are vigorously exploring mid-to-high-end customers: 56% of the company’s business department is concentrated in affluent provinces and cities.18 years share-based trading market share 2.

83%, net commission is priced at 3 / 10,000.

2) The overall scale and rate of growth of asset management business have been stable in recent years: 18 years of asset management revenue accounted for 6%.

3%. In 1Q19, the average scale of private equity management was 65.89 million yuan, ranking 5th in the industry.

3) Non-directional change in self-operated business: The investment is mainly fixed income products, and the bond investment ratio in 18 years is 52.2%, the nominal principal of the existing off-site budget at the end of May 19 was 836 ppm, ranking first in the industry.

4) Proactive and prudent stock pledge, the income structure of credit business income tends to be balanced. In the 2018 income structure, the interest income of the two financial institutions accounted for 40.

6%, the interest income from buy-sell-off accounted for 18.

1%, deposit interest income accounted for 23.


Covered for the first time, giving “overweight” rating.

The company is estimated using the segment evaluation method, which is given to the brokerage, investment bank 15 times, 25 times PE, the parent company’s active asset management, CITIC Construction Investment non-cargo-based P / AUM is 5%, 8 respectively.

0%, self-granted 1.

2 PB, credit business is given 1.

0 times PB, the company’s reasonable PB estimate is 2.

38 times, but the company as a new share totals a certain PB estimated premium.

It is expected that the company’s scaled net profit will increase by 50 per year from 2019-2021.

6%, 25.

6%, 17.

7%, ROE increased to 9.

4%, 10.

9%, 11.

At 8%, for the first time, we gave CITIC Construction Investment an “overweight” rating.

Risk reminder: The stock market has fallen sharply, capital market reforms have advanced less than expected, and the new shares have gradually changed and broke through.

Ganfeng Lithium (002460) Company Express: Lithium Price Enters Bottom Area and TWS Button Battery

Ganfeng Lithium (002460) Company Express: Lithium Price Enters Bottom Area and TWS Button Battery

Ganfeng Lithium (002460) Company Express: Lithium Price Enters Bottom Area and TWS Button Battery
Key Investment Events: On December 23, according to Fengfeng Information, the company stated on the interactive platform that the current daily production volume of TWS button batteries reached 50,000 and the order volume was large. The company will arrange an expansion plan based on market demand.It is understood that the company’s TWS battery wearable Bluetooth headsets and smart wearable devices, the main customers are JBL, Edifier and some well-known domestic mobile phone manufacturers.  The expansion of the gas phase was released as scheduled, and five new lithium hydroxide projects were built: According to the company’s 2019 Interim Report, Xinyu2, which was put into production in 2018, replaced lithium hydroxide monohydrate and Ningdu1.75 micro battery grade lithium carbonate has reached the production standard in 2019, and has passed the certification of new and old customers.As of the end of 2019, the company has a lithium carbonate production capacity of more than 4 concentrations per year and a lithium hydroxide production capacity of about 3.1 year.In addition, the company plans to increase the annual output of the third phase2.The capacity of 5 single cell grade lithium hydroxide is up to 5, and it is planned to be put into production in 2020. At that time, the company will reasonably arrange the output of products according to market demand.  The price of lithium carbonate has entered the bottom area, and the industry reshuffle has intensified: According to SMM data, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has been falling since June, and the latest offer5.08 million / ton, the price dropped by 33% earlier in mid-June, it has fallen below the cost line of 杭州夜生活网 domestic small and medium manufacturers, and the industry began to reduce production and stop production.At the same time, the pressure of price reduction was reduced to the upstream of the industrial chain, and the price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) dropped to 507.At $ 5 per ton, Bald Hill and other Australian lithium mining companies in Australia are under pressure to cut production and even go bankrupt.The industry’s backward production capacity has been gradually cleared, the scale of supply and demand has gradually improved, and lithium prices are expected to bottom out.  The bottom layout of the industry locks upstream high-quality lithium ore: Through the vertical advantage of the industrial chain, the company’s lithium ore project in Western Australia, Mount Marion, is currently running well, allowing the company to continue to increase its upstream high-quality lithium ore assets.According to the company’s announcement on October 22, Shanghai Ganfeng acquired Bacanora 29.99% equity and its owned lithium clay project Sonora 22.With 5% equity, the company obtained 50% of the first phase of the Sonora project and 75% of the lithium product underwriting rights of the second phase each year, which further consolidated the company’s advantages in core lithium resources.  Establishing strategic partnerships with global front-line battery plants and vehicle manufacturers: The company has established long-term strategic relationships with a number of blue-chip customers, including global front-line battery suppliers and global leading automotive OEM suppliers.From 2018 to 2020, the company provided battery-grade lithium hydroxide to Tesla’s designated battery suppliers, with annual purchases of approximately 20% of the company’s total production capacity for that year; in the next five years, the company will supply batteries or alternative materials designated by BMW, Germany.Suppliers supply lithium chemical products; from 2019 to 2025, the company will supply lithium hydroxide products to LG Chem; in the next ten years, it will supply lithium chemical products to Volkswagen and its suppliers.In the future, solid-state batteries will initially cooperate.  Investment suggestion: The company’s lithium product capacity is leading the world, and its upstream and downstream industrial chains are deployed in depth, and its ability to resist risks continues to increase.We predict that the company’s annual revenue from 2019 to 2021 will be 0.40 yuan, 0.66 yuan and 1.04 yuan, maintain “Buy-B” investment rating.  Risk warning: The price of lithium products fell more than expected; the release of production capacity fell short of expectations.

PICC (601319) 2019 Interim Report Review: Consolidation of leading property insurance business consolidates life insurance business transformation effect is obvious

PICC (601319) 2019 Interim Report Review: Consolidation of leading property insurance business consolidates life insurance business transformation effect is obvious

PICC (601319) 2019 Interim Report Review: Consolidation of leading property insurance business consolidates life insurance business transformation effect is obvious

Matters: PICC announced its 2杭州桑拿019 interim results report.

In the first half of the year, net profit attributable to mothers was RMB 1.55 million, which was +58 a year.

9%, net profit of non-attributed mother is 122 ‰, +25 for ten years.

1%; the net assets attributable to mothers at the end of the first half of the year was 171.9 billion US dollars, an increase of 12 earlier.

8%; comprehensive cost-effectiveness of property insurance business 97.

6%, up by 1 each year.

3pct; annualized total / net return on investment is 5.

4% and 5.

1%, ten years +0.

3 points and -0.

3 points.

Comment: Property insurance business is growing faster than its peers and its market share is increasing.

In the first half of the year, PICC Property & Casualty realized a premium income of 235.3 billion yuan, +14 per year.

9%, higher than the industry (11.

3%) and peer companies (Ping An Finance 9.

7%, Taibaocai 12.


At the end of the first half of the year, the property insurance business market share was recombined.

1%, an increase of 2 earlier.


In the context of stricter regulations, excessive restrictions on restricted expenses, and the deepening of the “commercial car fee reform” process, the concentration of the property and casualty insurance industry has benefited PICC P & C as the absolute leader in the industry.

The proportion of non-auto insurance increased further, and credit guarantee insurance stood out.

In the first half of the year, the growth rate of auto insurance continued the low-speed range under the downturn in the automotive industry, with a growth rate of 4.


The growth rate and proportion of non-auto insurance increased further, respectively, to 31.

4% and 46%, an increase of 5 over ten years.

7 points.

Credit guarantee insurance and Italian health insurance showed prominent growth, with growth rates of 115.

3% and 32.

5%, the proportion increased by 2.

1pct and 3.


The commission rate has fallen sharply, the increase in the payout rate has led to a negative increase in underwriting profit, and strategic and investment factors have caused a high increase in net profit after tax.

In the first half of the year, the underwriting profit of the property insurance business was ten years.

8%, preliminary increase in the comprehensive cost rate due to the rise in the compensation rate.

The cost structure of the property insurance business is: comprehensive cost ratio 97.

6%, up by 1 each year.

3pct; cost cost 32.7%, down 2 every year.

1 point; compensation is priced at 64.

9%, an increase of 3 per year.

The reason for the decrease in the expense ratio was mainly due to the high-pressure measures adopted by the regulatory authorities to restrict the cost and expense competition. The increase in the compensation rate was mainly due to the increase in the agricultural insurance compensation rate caused by natural disasters and agricultural swine fever.

The high increase in net profit after taxation was due to: 1) the commission fee rate decreased to reduce the current pressure on fees, and the commission fee subsidy for the property insurance business in the first half of the year.

3%, a decline of 7pc a year, real income increased by 17%, a year decreased by 11.

4pct; 2) Implement the new program fee and tax regulations, and redeem 42 of last year’s income and expenses.

300 million; 3) The equity market environment has improved and investment income has increased significantly, approximately 11% (only PICC P & C).

The quality of life insurance business has improved significantly.

In the first half of the year, PICC Life Insurance’s new single premium was US $ 398 million, a year of -9%, and the new business value was 38.

5 ‰, +25 a year.

6%, the quality of business has improved significantly, and the rate of value of new business has increased.

The improvement in quality is reflected in: 1) the proportion of payment business increased by 9.

1 single; 2) Short-term duration business in the bancassurance channel was compressed, with an overall growth rate of -15.

4%, banbao yinjiao -28.

8%, and the overall scale of various insurance channels achieved positive growth, new orders contributed a breakthrough, first year payment +14.

6%, 趸 Jiao +426.


The scale of short- and medium-term business continued to expand, with surrenders and maturity payments significantly reduced, and the conversion effect was obvious.

Investment suggestion: We predict that the PICC EPS for 2019-2021 will be: 0.



58 yuan (previous average 0.



83 yuan); BPS is 4.



92 yuan (previous average 3).



18 yuan).

According to the pre-judgment of the business growth of the Chinese people’s security business in the next year, the property insurance business will be given.


8 times PB, 1 times PEV for life insurance business and 1 PB for other businesses. The corresponding price range is: 8.


9 yuan / share.

The current static PB evaluation is 2.
29 times, there is a certain overestimation, performance is difficult to support, maintaining a “neutral” level.
Risk warning: New car sales decline, catastrophes occur frequently, equity market is turbulent, and downward economic pressure is increasing

Huafu Fashion (002042): Plans to issue convertible bonds optimistic about the company’s future performance and maintain steady growth

Huafu Fashion (002042): Plans to issue convertible bonds optimistic about the company’s future performance and maintain steady growth

Huafu Fashion (002042): Plans to issue 南京桑拿网 convertible bonds optimistic about the company’s future performance and maintain steady growth

It is proposed to issue convertible debt, and the investment proceeds will be used in the latest announcement of the Vietnam yarn project and loan repayment company. It is proposed to issue convertible corporate bonds with a total raised capital of no more than 2.5 billion U.S. dollars.The raised funds will be invested in Huafu (Vietnam) 500,000 new yarn project (1.8 billion) and repayment of bank loans (700 million).

As of the end of 2018, the company has a capacity of 1.88 million ingots, distributed in Zhejiang, Yangtze River, Huanghuai, Xinjiang and Vietnam.

Among them, Vietnam has a production capacity of 280,000 ingots, accounting for 14.


The construction of fund-raising projects will help the company to overcome 佛山桑拿网 Vietnam’s low labor costs, low export tariffs in Europe and the United States, coupled with advantages such as supplements and policy preferences, and continuously expand production capacity. At the same time, it will strengthen and expand its existing customer relationships and expand new customer networks.To further increase the company’s market share.

As of the third quarter of 2018, the company’s asset-liability ratio was 57.


Among them, short-term loans totaled 73.

60 trillion, short-term debt scale budget.

Part of the funds raised through the issuance of convertible bonds for repayment of bank loans can effectively reduce the company’s debt level, ease the company’s internal short-term debt repayment pressure, and improve the company’s financial structure.

We expect the company’s performance in 2019 is expected to maintain steady growth. First of all, benefit from the easing of Sino-US trade frictions, and the company’s orders promote the rebound.

In general, the company ‘s capacity in Xinjiang and Vietnam has steadily expanded. According to the company ‘s earlier announcement on the investment agreement of the Akzo Huafu Hengtian Color Spinning Industrial Park project, it is necessary to build 1 million spindles of spinning capacity by 2020 (there has been put into operation in 630,000 in 2018Spindles), and the company announced at the end of 2018 that 2.5 billion spindles were invested in new yarn projects in Vietnam.

Finally, the company signed strategic cooperation agreements with the Agricultural Development Bank of China Xinjiang Branch and the China Development Bank Xinjiang Branch in 2018, which provided sufficient guarantee for the development of front-end network chain business.

Earnings forecast and investment rating are expected to be 0 for 2018-2020.



66 yuan / share, the current price corresponds to 13 times PE this year, comparable to the company’s average PE 13 times in 2019. The company as an oligarch in the color spinning industry has an estimated premium of 14 times 2019 PE, a reasonable value of 8.

26 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risks remind the company of the risk of fluctuations in raw material prices; Sino-US trade frictions intensify, and the risk of reduced orders;

60% of the active stock base recovered last year and lost 9 points in the broader market

60% of the active stock base recovered last year and lost 9 points in the broader market

60% of the active stock base recovered last year and lost 9 points in the broader market

Source: China Fund News Original title: 60% of the active stock base recovered last year’s 9-point loss and outperformed the broader market. The stock market fell in 2018, smashing a big hole in the market this year.

Since this year, most of the funds that have surpassed last year have paid off.

More than 60% of active partial equity funds have received positive returns since last year, and have obtained excess returns that outperformed the market by nearly 9 returns.

  Over 60% of the active partial equity funds recovered last year’s decline data show that from the overall performance point of view, the closing of October 18 consecutively, this year’s active partial equity funds made a big 27.

9%, compared with 17 last year.

1%, starting from 2018, the overall net profit is 4.

9%, the budget fund has been reduced in size last year and has achieved profitability.

  Compared with the performance benchmark tracked by most active partial equity funds, the CSI 300 Index, since 2018, the CSI 300 Index has still changed by 4%. It has not been able to recover its previous decline. 佛山桑拿网 Active equity funds have outperformed the market as a whole.

  Among them, active stock funds operating in high positions performed particularly strongly, plunging 24 last year.

7%, soaring 37 this year.

5%, currently earning 3 overall.

6%; mixed funds have relatively small fluctuations, last year for the whole year.

1%, an increase of 26 this year.

At 6%, both types of active equity funds have achieved positive returns since 2018.

  From the overall performance point of view, as of the close of last Friday, of the 2,124 active partial equity funds (A, C combined calculation), 1365 funds have received positive returns since 2018, accounting for 64.


This also means that as of last Friday, more than 60% of the partial equity funds have fallen in 2018 and have started to make money.

  15 funds including Wells Fargo Precision Medical, Wells Fargo New Power A, and Huaan Media Internet have increased by more than 50% since 2018.

Among them, Wells Fargo Precision Medical, which belongs to Wells Fargo Funds, and Wells Fargo New Power A both have yields of more than 70%. Huaan Media Internet, Qianhai Open Source China ‘s scarce asset A, and Cathay Rongduo ‘s three funds have yields more than 60%.; 10 funds including Shanghai Investment Morgan Healthcare, Hui’an Fortress A and other 10 funds yielded more than 50%, far exceeding the market growth over the same period.

  Talking about the excess returns of fund investment in the past two years, many fund managers believe that although the stock market has experienced severe turbulence in the past two years, the structural adjustment of positions, the change of positions, and the alpha in the market have shown that partial-equity funds have generally reflectedGood excess profitability.

  A large-scale public equity mixed fund manager in Beijing said that the market fell first and then rose in the past two years, and the structural market was prominent. Consumption, liquor, agriculture, medicine and other sectors have penetrated gains. The technology sector has also made money since the opening of the science and technology board.Prominently, investing in these structural stocks can create good investment returns for the portfolio; growth, the stock market fell last year, this year’s stock market turbulence climbed, and the fund that brought changes in the position of the stock market to participate in the science and technology board after JulyThe new fund, coupled with the hedging of some stock index futures, partial stock funds have the opportunity to outperform the market and obtain excess returns.

  A person in the middle-sized public market department in Beijing also disclosed that the size of the new fund of the science and technology board he raised was moderate. After the market opened, the new stocks of the science and technology board rose tremendously, contributing about 10% to the overall portfolio income.Excess returns.
“Science and technology innovation is our biggest source of excess revenue this year.

“In fact, some high-performance equity funds” declined the market and resisted the decline, and the rising market led the gains. ”

  According to statistics, 289 funds have achieved positive returns in 2018 and so far in 2019, and the absolute absolute increase gradually leads the market.

Taking Wells Fargo Precision Medicine as an example, the fund gained 3 in the market crash last year.

17% positive return.

The increase in net worth this year has reached 68.

1% for two years, it has achieved positive returns, bringing good returns and holding experience for investors.

  The 756 funds that did not receive resumption and lost land last year were too large due to the so-called active equity partial funds that have achieved positive returns since 2018. Most of them have better controlled the retracement during the last year’s plunge. The average decline was onlyHalf of the broad market index.

In the rally in the first quarter of this year, it quickly recovered the decline and reached a new high.

  Generally speaking, there are still 756 active partial equity funds that have not recovered their lost ground, accounting for 35.

6%, which was expected to be too large last year, is a preliminary indication that various types of funds have not yet paid back.

Although the stock market this year has also gained an average of 24%, some funds are still in the overall replacement.

  The above-mentioned mixed fund manager in Beijing said that since the implementation of active partial funds is a relative income assessment, it is necessary to meet the contract’s holding positions.

The fund manager hopes that after the establishment of the fund, it will make a high return on the basis of accumulated safety mats.

Once the fund budget is too large, the subsequent years will be under the pressure of repayment, and the fragility of product operation success will become greater and greater.

In fact, there are many ways for funds to control the risk of serious retreat of net worth. They can be reduced through portfolio investment, position adjustment, shareholding structure adjustment, and some funds also have stock index futures hedging strategies.  From the perspective of funds that have recorded negative returns, in 2018, the number of active partial equity funds that have recorded negative returns since 2019 is 13 and the proportion of all active partial equity funds is only 0.


From the above two consecutive types of funds with poor forecast performance, quantitative funds, asset rotation funds, and some new strategy funds are all on the list.

  Talking about the reasons for the poor performance of some quantitative funds, a middle-sized public fundraising executive in South China believes that from the statistics of his public fundraising quantification team, this year’s high-frequency factor, price-volume factor performed best, alpha contribution rate, basicThe face factor response is relatively lagging.

If the investment is reversed, it will lead to poor performance of quantified funds.

  A large-scale public fundraising fund manager in South China also said that since this year, the excess return of his public multi-factor stock selection strategy and the new strategy of science and technology board is the most obvious, resulting in equal contributions.

However, in the future, the transformation of the science and technology innovation board will increase the number of new participating institutions and dilute earnings, and the multi-factor stock selection strategy will still be an important source of quantified fund income.

Great Wall Motor (601633): July’s sales growth increased by 11% in continuous industries

Great Wall Motor (601633): July’s sales growth increased by 11% in continuous industries

Great Wall Motor (601633): July’s sales growth increased by 11% in continuous industries
Event: The company released a sales report for July, and the company achieved sales of 6 in July.40,000 vehicles, an increase of 11 per year.09%; 55 from January to July.390,000 vehicles, an annual increase of 5.33%.The company’s output in July was 5.990,000 vehicles, an annual increase of 11.01%; cumulative output from January to July 55.70,000 vehicles, an annual increase of 6.09%. Key points of investment: July sales growth rate breaks through the industry. Haval F, M series perform well. The company’s sales volume continues to grow against the background of the industry’s downward trend. Obvious industries, the main increase is from F, M series and Euler new energy series.Haval F-series cumulative sales from January to July reached 9.540,000 vehicles; Haval M6 completed the sixth national switchover, sold 5052 vehicles in July, an annual increase of 105.2%, sales gradually from January to July 4.690,000 vehicles, an increase of 123 in ten years.8%, this year has maintained rapid growth.In addition, H6 sports version, H2 and pickup will also complete the completion of the sixth country, sales are expected to usher in a sequential improvement.Export performance remained strong, with 7,403 vehicles exported in July growing 69 per year.5%, cumulative exports from January to July 3.770,000 vehicles, an annual increase of 35.7%.The sales volume of 佛山桑拿网 Euler new energy brands in July was 2,071 units, which was a decrease from the previous month in June, mainly due to the impact of the new energy vehicles replacing the downhill and replacing the overdraft in the previous period, which caused short-term pressure on market demand, but the long-term growth trend remained unchanged.Beginning in September, as the industry’s sales volume is lower than the low base, and stimulated by automobile consumption policies issued in various places, the industry has clearly improved significantly, ushering in a repair period. The company plans to set up a joint venture with BMW, and the new new production capacity is successively put into production. The company plans to set up a joint venture with BMW. The products cover three major categories: SUVs, automobiles, and pickups. At present, the two 南京夜网 parties are communicating details of the cooperation and reporting the project to the relevant authoritiesBe prepared. The first phase of the company’s production base in Tula, Russia was put into production in June this year, with an annual production capacity of 80,000 vehicles. It will mainly produce H9 and F7 models. Following the domestic production bases in Baoding, Xushui, and Tianjin, the Chongqing Yongchuan plant willCompleted and put into production at the end of 2019, providing productivity support for performance growth. Maintaining the “Recommended” rating We expect the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019/2020/2021 to be 38.8 billion / 53.3.9 billion / 69.10 billion yuan, EPS is 0.43 yuan / 0.58 yuan / 0.76 yuan, corresponding to the current ongoing P / E evaluation levels of 18X / 13X / 10X respectively, maintaining the “recommended” level. Risk warning: car sales are lower than expected; new car listing progress is lower than expected.

Feike Electric (603868): Channel adjustment impacts surging offline revenue growth under pressure

Feike Electric (603868): Channel adjustment impacts surging offline revenue growth under pressure

Feike Electric (603868): Channel adjustment impacts surging offline revenue growth under pressure
This report reads: The company’s 20天津夜网19 interim report is slightly lower than expected.The impact of the adjustment of Yiwu’s wholesale channels still exists, resulting in the company’s offline revenue growth under pressure, reducing the target price to 45.5 yuan, increase holdings. Investment Highlights: Revise down earnings forecast and target price to 45.5 yuan, maintain overweight rating.Yiwu’s wholesale channel adjustment has not been completed, which puts pressure on the company’s offline business revenue growth.Reduce EPS for 2019-2021 to 1.82 (-16.5%) / 2.06 (-13.4%) / 2.23 (-16.4%), lowering the target price to 45.5 (-16.3%), corresponding to 25xPE in 2019, increasing holdings. The company released its semi-annual report for 2019, and its performance was slightly lower than market expectations.The company achieved revenue of 17 in 2019H1.200 million 北京夜网 (-5.0%), net profit attributable to mother 3.4 billion (-15.4%), gross profit margin 38.6% (-0.8pct), net interest rate 19.5% (-2.4pct).Single-quarter revenue in Q2 2019 8.8 billion (-5.6%), net profit attributable to mother 1.700 million (-22.5%), gross margin of 38.7% (-2.1pc), net interest rate 19.7% (-4.3pct).The decrease in gross profit margin was mainly caused by the decrease in the gross profit margin of new products. During the period, the expense ratio increased by 4 points, resulting in a decrease in net profit margin. The main business growth rate in the short term dragged down the overall revenue growth rate replacement.In terms of different channels, the adjustment of the wholesale channel structure has put pressure on the company’s offline revenue growth, and the offline revenue growth rate in 2019H1 will exceed -10.0%, online three years -0.6%.In terms of products, the growth rate of electric shavers exceeded the decline by 10%, which dragged down the company’s overall revenue.According to the data monitoring of Zhongyikang, the online retail volume share of shaver / hairdressing products of the company H1 in 2019 is 48% (-4.8pct) / 27% (+2.8pct).The retail volume share of offline shavers / hairdressing products is 39% (+1).3pct) / 34% ()-3.0pct).The growth rate of the sub-brand vPro has changed abruptly, and the online retail volume share of 2019H1 fluctuated slightly to 5% (-0.1pct). The number of dealers continued to increase, the channel structure was optimized, and new categories were gradually increased. It is expected that the company’s revenue growth rate in the second half of the year will promote normalization.The number of H1 dealers in 2019 increased by 77 to 747 dealers by the end of 2018.New product categories, health weighing has not been launched in all channels, electric toothbrushes are expected to be listed in the second half of 2019.The follow-up channel structure continued to be optimized to supplement new categories and gradually increased volume. It is expected that the company’s revenue growth rate will be positive in the second half of the year. Risk warning: the progress of channel adjustment and the launch of new categories are less than expected, and industry competition is intensifying.

Mercury Home Textiles (603365): 18Q4 online resumes growth and offline long-term benefits consumption upgrade

Mercury Home Textiles (603365): 18Q4 online resumes growth and offline long-term benefits consumption upgrade

Mercury Home Textiles (603365): 18Q4 online resumes growth and offline long-term benefits consumption upgrade


The event company released its 2018 annual report. From January to December 2018, the company achieved revenue 27.

19 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.

44%; realized net profit attributable to parent company2.

850,000 yuan, an increase of 10 in ten years.

77%; net profit attributable to non-attributed mothers2.

59 ppm, an increase of ten years6.


18 years to achieve an EPS of 1.

07 yuan.

The company plans to use the company’s total share capital of 266,670,000 on December 31, 2018.

00 shares are the base number, and a cash dividend of 5 yuan (including tax) is distributed to all shareholders for every 10 shares, and the yield is 2.

76% (2019/4/12).

Among them, 2018Q1-Q4 operating income increased by 24 respectively.

79% / 8.

89% / 8.

72% / 4.

67%; net profit attributable to parent company increased by 24.

58% / 15.

55% / 5.

56% / 3.



Our analysis and judgment (I) Online: Q4’s performance is picking up, and future growth is expected to be 10 in 2018.

22 trillion, a year-on-year growth rate of 7.

28%, the proportion of total income fell slightly in ten years.

1% is 37.


Earlier companies’ e-commerce performance showed a trend of opening up and going down. Affected by 17 years of high e-commerce bases and emerging low-priced e-commerce platform diversions, Q2 and Q3 companies experienced negative growth for the first time.

After the company’s product structure adjustment and strengthened cooperation with social e-commerce, in addition to the normal growth in Q4 revenue, the company continued to win the home textile industry single store and single brand double room champions in the 2018 Tmall “Double Eleven” Shopping Festival.
Under the positive stimulus of the predictable corporate e-commerce channel policy, it is expected that online revenue will return to a stable development trend in 2019, and future growth is expected.

(II) Offline: Maintaining steady growth, benefiting from long-term consumption upgrade The company’s offline business maintained a consistent and stable development trend, and its revenue in 2018 increased by 12%.

85% to 16.

7.3 billion, basically the same growth rate as last year.

The company continues to promote the construction of eighth-generation stores, gradually increasing the number of stores by nearly 100, and the total number of stores currently reaches 2800+.

In terms of geographical distribution, the company chose to implement a “grid layout” in third- and fourth-tier cities, while the first- and second-tier cities expanded the “key layout” strategy, with clear channel card advantages.

Affected by the social consumption environment of Q4, the company’s offline revenue in Q4 has a certain degree of tilt, which is also the reason why the company’s total revenue in Q4 has further increased.

However, benefiting from the general trend of consumption upgrade in third- and fourth-tier cities, the company is expected to obtain stable growth dividends in the mass market. (3) The operating capacity has been slightly reduced, and the overall inventory has remained basically stable compared to the same period last year, and the inventory has increased slightly. The increase in the size of accounts receivable has penetrated and the operating cash flow has been obvious.

As of the end of 2018, the company’s inventory has increased by more than 4%.

43% to 7.

80 ppm, an increase of less than 10% of revenue growth.

44PCT, the inventory turnover days decreased by 1 day to 156 days, and the inventory loss decreased significantly by 43.

51% to 406.

99 million yuan.

The company’s inventory management capabilities continued to increase; the proportion of accounts receivable increased by 46.

92% to 1.

USD 7.7 billion, accounts receivable turnover days increased by 4 to 20 days, mainly due to the increase in e-commerce dealership platform sales outstanding payment period; due to the rapid increase in the amount of accounts receivable, the implementation of raised projects and the purchase of wealth management productsInfluenced by other factors, the net operating cash flow decreased by more than 21.

62% to 2.

4 billion.

Gross profit margin fell from January to December.

25PCT to 35.

11%, of which the gross profit margins for Q1 to Q4 2018 were 36.

42% / 35.

28% / 33.

16% / 35.


Overall, the company’s offline business gross margin has remained basically stable, and its offline gross margin has also declined due to the impact of low-price e-commerce.

78PCT caused an overall decline.

In addition, the company’s high gross margin online business was replaced due to increased growth (overall business growth of more than 10).

44%), leading to a decline in the proportion of total revenue, which indirectly leads to a reduction in overall gross profit margin.

During the period of January-December, the cost rate decreased by 3 every year.

20% to 22.

90%, among which, sales expenses, management expenses (including research and development expenses), and financial expense ratios are 16.

42% / 6.

73% /-0.

25%, change 3 every year.

20% /-10.

41% /-201.


The total decrease in finance costs was negative.

Maximize investment income by 2828.

76PCT to 1565.

550,000 yuan, because the company’s investment income is entirely derived from the disposal and sale of financial assets, and the amount of the previous period decreased, resulting in changes in the value of the period.


Investment advice At this stage, the company’s channel inventory pressure is improving, and it is in a positive cycle of healthy operation.

According to the company’s leading indicators for the 20th spring / summer / autumn 19 meeting amount increase of 20% / 15%, it is expected to continue the 18-year low double-digit growth trend offline in 19 years, replacing the e-commerce business in product structure adjustment, platform management, resource allocationThe reforms in other aspects have had significant effects, and expected low double-digit growth in revenue. It is expected that the revenue scale for 2019-2021 will be 30.


8 billion, a growth rate of 11.

17% / 10.

81% / 9.

87%, deducting non-attributed net profit is 3.



2.8 billion, with an EPS of 1.



607 yuan, the company’s current sustainable corresponding PE for 2019-2021 is 14.



26 times.

The company’s overall expectations are still attractive. New brands, channels, and supply chain optimization have been gradually optimized. Online and offline synergies have gradually enhanced profitability.

For the first coverage, we give a “cautious recommendation” rating.


The risks indicate the market risks of new brand pioneers, the uncertainty of the end-consumption environment, the substantial increase in inventory or the risk of impairment.

Theme: Overlay by Kaira Extra Text
Cape Town, South Africa